Mr. Bush's History

ExterminateTheBrutes
The HorrorVille

"History, we don’t know. We’ll all be dead."

George W. Bush, to his former best enabler, Bob Woodward
Early 2004

Now, of course those who deny that death is actually a bad thing, especially when it is done in the name of Ideology and/or Haliburton, will soon be spewing all over the latest bit of epidemiology just published in that crackpot/whacko journal 'The Lancet' which estimates that more than 600,000 people have died violently since the nakedly aggressive occupation of Iraq began in 2003.

And because of that we thought it might be worth actually posting the abstract from the paper before the mainstream media buries it beneath the death lover's mountain of projectile vomit.

So here it is, by Burnham et al.:

Background
An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003–September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of Iraq. Our aim was to update this estimate.

Methods
Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq. 50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered.

Findings
Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3–7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9–16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Interpretation
The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year. Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from car bombing have increased.


Now, I am a basic scientist, not an epidemiologist. Thus, I am not an expert on population sampling (which is why the rigorous peer review from scientists in the field concerned that goes on at top flight journals like The Lancet is so important), but even if you ignore the total numbers and just think about the specific families that were interviewed you can only come to one conclusion:

We already know Mr. Bush's history - and it is, indeed, death .

And, most importantly, it is a history that will never be forgotten, and likely will the driving force of any future rash actions of Iraqis, by those who are still alive.

Which is a terrible and damning legacy indeed.

_____
For those who can't get behind the Lancet's subscription wailing wall here is a pdf of the entire paper from Burnham et al.
Update: Billmon does a nice bit of compar-o-rama re: who is a better killer, Saddam or Mr. Bush. The thing is, regardless whose numbers you use, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the latter has killed more people than anyone else in the 21st century. Period.

.