LeftVille
It's always tough for the average voter to gauge what is really going down as election day in Lotusland approaches, internal party polls that are immediately splashed across the front pages of local CorpMedia print organs notwithstanding.
For all kinds of reasons, including the lack a ward system 'round here.
But the thing to remember is that sometimes the issues that matter least, at least with respect to how the city will actually be run by the next administration, can make a big difference in the closing days of the campaign.
The 2008 example, which was the Olympic Village financing debacle that Mr Robertson and friends used to great advantage, is an easy one to recall.
But what about 2005?
Well, there was, of course, that Big Green Bus, but I think it would be a mistake not to also remember how he who would come to rule Spam-A-Lot before it went all Caucusy also sat down and broke bread for a rump-roast dinner with those who were too progressive for the real Mr. Green in a perhaps just successful enough manner to bleed enough uber-Classic COPE votes from the Alliance.
And now?
Well, Bob Mackin makes a reasonable case that the game changer could be Occupy Vancouver.
And I know Ian Reid, who thinks of these things in both progressive as well as real-politick, nut-cutting terms is worried about the bamboozlement factor, aided and abetted by the local corpMedia mouthpieces, that could help float the nonsensical, anti-sensical Fantasy Island-destined party boat that is allegedly being steered by Ms. Always Campaigning.
But I have another thought.
Which is that the Independents sure are getting a lot more play around here this time around in the midst of all the Occupy talk.
And that seems to be especially true for those independents who are able to articulate a reasonable message that reasonates with 99.99% of the people in Vancouver who are not developers getting rich off of things like the 'revitalization' of the Cambie St. corridor*.
So.
Here's a question to ponder....
Is it possible for a couple of Independents to breakthrough without bleeding so many votes from the Alliance that it allows the nonsensical Fantasy Island party to start closing libraries again?
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*And if anybody wants to see an example of the 0.01% at work, just keep your eyes open as you travel South on Cambie and cross 29th (by the entrance to the Park)....There are two signs that you will pass on your right just past that intersection, on the same piece of property in that block where all the houses have been bought up and are now up for auction....One is a 'For Sale' sign, and another is a civic election 'Campaign' sign....And guess what?....They both have the same last name on them.
Frances Bula, who had some issues with the actual mechanics of internal poll that the VSun trumpeted goes out of her way to not chide the guy whose byline is on the piece, Jeff Lee....But I've gotta wonder why, exactly, that poll was the dominant part of Mr. Lee's lede...I mean, it would seem to me that stuff like this is worth reporting, perhaps, as part of a discussion on where the various camps 'think' they are and what buttons they are likely to push in the last days of an election campaign....But to make a questionable internal poll the dominant aspect of a front page story's lede one week before the election?...Well, I'm sorry, but it is very hard for me to conclude that that is not a bit of a 'push' intentional or otherwise....
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8 comments:
I think NPA's infiltration into Postmedia is a bigger issue. I notice the Sun is featuring an NPA poll showing NPA candidate Anton gaining ground. The Province is also heavily featuring NPA. Again, it is the media playing the role of promoter for one party over another, and not just on the editorial pages. Occupy is certainly an important issue in the campaigns but I'm more concerned with media bias presenting only one side of the larger issues in favour of one party.
Just an update to the Vancouver Sun Jeff Lee NPA story. He has another article now on the poll, including the actual questions asked. But what's notable about Lee's story is that he paints himself as the victim of readers' ire over the publication of the poll. You can almost feel the tears through his words. Sad.
Just about any election has a bamboozelable now factor issue. Politicians have to roll with those punches or find another ring to fight in.
Stick to your day job as conspiracy theorist, Jym. It becomes you.
As for indepth analysis here, not so much. If what you're saying is that media coverage alone is the determining factor in an election, I guess, if true, it would be born out by coverage and then election of independents.
If independents who have had more media coverage than party people aren't elected, will that then throw your theory into a tizzy?
Or, is that msm bias too?
:-)
RossK,
Thanks again for your too kind shout out.
Here I am sitting in an airport lounge on my way to Istanbul (voted yesterday) scanning headlines and my favourite bloggers and I realize I still haven't got over my anger with the Sun's coverage of that poll.
Here's the deal, if you don't have all the questions in the order they were asked and all the methodology (who was called, when etc...) you don't publish because it's probably bullshit.
One can only conclude the The Sun is not objective. There's a surprise.
Thanks Jym for your thoughtful comments and opinion.
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Beer-- Point taken, and it appears the Visionista charm offensive has begun in response
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Yo Momma--
An hypothesis is a prediction based a set of observations (ie. the data). I did not go that far. I asked a question so folks could comment. You have done so, and thanks for that. No need for the derision, however.
And while I'm on the subject, unless someone is trolling*, we don't whack people around here, as you did with Jym above, for offering up an opinion.
Now, in response to your comment...I did not say media coverage is the 'only thing', but I did imply that it really, really matters, especially without wards where an independent can get a leg up with less of it for obvious reasons. With respect to the 'poll', the importance (or not) of bigtime front-page coverage that will be wurlitzered by all the lessers - the proof will be in the pudding in the next few days.
Finally, I keep wondering why the NPA gave it to Jeff Lee and the VSun and not FABula and the Globe who was also asking for it. I can think of two reasons...One there may have been concerns that Frances would have questioned the methodology in the paper as she did on her blog. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it would have run in the Globe on page 1, but not at the front of the paper.
(*i.e. you have now been forewarned)
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Ian--
Mr. Lee's follow-up blog makes it clear that both issues were in play, even for him, although not to the extent that they were for Ms. Bula.
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Istanbul!?
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And...As they round the three-quarter pole, here comes an independent on the outside with a boost from....The proMedia?
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