Monday, May 29, 2017

The True State Of Lotuslandian Political ProMedia Punditry.


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Update Monday pm....Well, it looks like Mikey Mike did know something he refused to tell us...Because...This.
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The point?

If Mikey Mike knows something he should just tell us.

But...

If he doesn't he should just shut the heckfire up.

Because empty speculations like this are a million times worse than those of any idiot blogger.

Ever.


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Tuesday, May 23, 2017

One....Errrr....No More Day(s)...

AllTheirStrategicVoteGetteries
'RUsVille

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Final Update: 5:20pm Wednesday.... Dippers win going away by 189...Throne speech throwdown here we go!

Update: 5:30pm Tuesday....Elections BC has revised its numbers....Dippers now up by ROCK-101 in CoCo!...Hard rock data miner guy Chad Skelton figures that 56% of the absentee ballots have been counted with 911 to go 
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From the (pretty much) always reliable Shane Woodford at 4:25 pm Tuesday:



Gosh.

With the Clarkdashians currently up by 0.01% (aka 3 votes) is now a good time to remind everyone that the Green Party candidate took 18% (aka 4,939 votes) in that riding?



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Sunday Setlist...Melancholia, Or Something Like It.

NamingAllThese
TunesVille


It's that road thing, I think, that causes this weird melancholia that got hold of me this weekend.

That fronts a back-to-front reverse romance trilogy I've had stuck in my head for awhile now.

The full setlist this time 'round is...

Sunday Morning Coming Down - K. Kristofferson
Alabama Pines - J. Isbell
Pine For The Cedars - D. Mangan
Sell The House - I. Felice
I'm On Fire -  B. Springsteen
New York City Serenade - B. Springsteen 


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These Days In Clarkland...Always Be Closing.

TheBestThingsInLife
Aren'tFreeVille


Sure there's a vote count going down.

But, in the meantime, the folks manning the lifeboats in the good ship Clarklandia are also raking in big bundles of money hand over fist.

Bob Mackin has been been keeping track. Here's just one $100,000 bundle (note the date of of the donations):



Gosh.

It's almost as if Mitch and Murray errrrr...the Wizardry sent in a young Alec Baldwin to crack some donor heads.

Which shouldn't be too surprising, I suppose, when you realize that, since May 9th,  they've been able to scare the crap out of their marks by warning them that this may be their last chance to get in on that democracy killing slushpile of bought influence for, like, maybe...

Ever.

(or at least until that Courtenay-Comox count is done)


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Subheader got your earworm rising?....This! 
Update: Bob Mackin has now dug all the new, post-election numbers out of the Clarkdashian's pdf file...The new total is almost a million, the great majority of it coming from the usual suspects. 


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Sunday, May 21, 2017

This Post-Election Lull In Clarkland....The Former Star Candidate Speaks.

OnceATeleprompterPurveyor
AlwaysATeleprompterPurveyorVille


Scott Brown of Postmedia brings you the wise-acred words of one Mr. Steve Darling, straight-up, steno-style:

"...We knew from the very beginning that we were going into a very tough market but as I said right from the beginning, I felt very connected to that market because I’ve worked there for so long in Burnaby-Lougheed..."


Gosh.

A 'market'...

That's a really neat-o way to think of your constituents and all that Steve-O.

Sheesh.



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The Cronification Of Absolutely Everything...BC Hydro Division.

LobbyYouAndLobbyMe
AhaaaVille


And here I thought that, after sixteen years, we had seen it all...



Because, you know, this...



Sheesh.

No...

Double-secret, non-probational sheesh.

OK?


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Of course, the intern who is running the Hydro twittmachine feed this weekend was quick to note that the rebate program extends to all kinds of brands...But....Samsung was the only 'winner' they chose to Tweet about...Surprise! 
Tip O' The Toque to 'casualcactii' for getting the ball rolling on this one.



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Saturday, May 20, 2017

It's A Crony Party Party! (At The Vancouver Police Board)

TheRot
RunsDeepVille


The Vancouver Police Board has nine members.

One member is elected by city council and one is the mayor.

The other seven members are appointed by the provincial government.

Guess how many are connected to the Crony Party by money...



No matter how things turn out with next week's count-off, this must end.



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And what is really, really troublesome here is the 'expertise' (or total lack thereof) of those fine Crony Party appointees.


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Friday, May 19, 2017

The Thing I Get...



...Is This.





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There is sure to be all sorts of stuff to follow the sad passing of Mr. Cornell. Stuff like this is what I will choose to remember.

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Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Keef Report....The New Shrewd.

NevermindTheBase
He'sGotAReallyBigPlayToGameVille


As you might expect, it is the Keef that shows how the game is played:




Hmmmmm...

I guess bringing in an an old SoCredCon as his offensive coordinator is an indicator of how the good Mr. Weaver will play his 'New Way of Doing Politics' game.

And to hell with the voter base and all that.

Gosh.

Can an even newer Progressive Democratic Alliance Unity Party Party be far behind?



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Monday, May 15, 2017

Courtenay-Comox Revisited....The Dumber They Come.

ProPunditryJustAin'tWhatIt
UsedToBeVille


The latest from Mikey Mike in the Province:

A lot of B.C. Liberals are furious at Leah McCulloch these days because she ran in last week’s provincial election as a member of the B.C. Conservative party.

The Conservatives are a broke, leaderless, barely organized outfit scuttling around the fringes of the B.C. political scene. They ran just 10 candidates provincewide.

But McCulloch still managed to get 2,061 votes in Courtenay-Comox, the crucial riding where the NDP beat the governing Liberals by just nine votes in the preliminary results.

The Liberals ended up with 43 seats on election night — one short of a majority in the 87-seat legislature — and now some Liberals see McCulloch as the vote-splitting spoiler who denied majority power to Christy Clark.

“There’s a lot of hate coming my way,” said McCulloch, a 53-year-old dietitian who ran for political office for the first time.

“They think the Liberals would have won the riding if there hadn’t been a Conservative candidate on the ballot. They’re probably right, but they have only themselves to blame, not me.”...



All very interesting in a superficial*, as far as it goes, kind of way.

Except for, well, you know....

This:




Now.

Normally, I would not be quite so harsh in my commentary on the work of the good Mr. Smyth given how hard it is for a columnist to phone it in during a lull like the one we are in at the moment.

Except that in his column he does not once....

And I mean not once....

Even bother to mention the number of votes garnered by Green candidate in Courtenay-Comox and how many votes the Greens therefore took from the NDP candidate based on the accepted 67/33% Dipper/Lib split.

Again.

Not once.


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*As for the superficial (in addition to the downright negligent) aspect of Mr. Smyth's analysis?....The real story as to why there was no last minute surge, overall, for Ms. Clark and the Crony Party Party in 2017 is nowhere to be found, specifically with respect to the fact that they had so destroyed the rump roast of the Con Party in advance this time around that there was no final collapse of a bloated Carcass of the Cummins like the one that led to a soft true blue bleed to the C.P.P. the last week before the election back in 2013...


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Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Requiem For An Electorate...Explaining To Mr. Mason Why So Many Voters Just Don't Get It.

ConsensusIsOnlyBuiltByReal
FollowUpVille


Maybe, just maybe, there will be a coalition that matters (for both the people and the environment) around here.

But, even if Courtenay-Comox does NOT flip on the absentee ballots and turn Mr. Weaver et al's gift of 16 seats to the BCL into our collective four year (and likely much, much longer from a systemic debt and treasure give away point of view) nightmare, no one can dispute the fact that, despite all the corruption, malfeasance and outright, bald-faced lying, Ms. Clark and her Crony Party Party (i.e. the C.P.P.) still won 41% of the popular vote last night.

****

Now.

Those of you all that have been hanging around here for awhile know that I have derided Mr. Mason, he of both Chichester Cathedral and the Globe and (No Longer Empire) Mail, for his laments that go something like this:


Well....

In a nutshell, this is why:



OK?


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Having said all that, if things hold I, for one, am thinking that Ms. Furstaneau is the type of principled person who will do her darndest to make sure her party's leader does the right thing by the folks that voted for her.


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Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Election Returns Open Thread...



Feel free to vent.

I'm off until about 9:45pm getting littler e. from a tap dance thingy.

Don't wreck the place while I'm away...



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Come On Over, There's A Whole Lotta Voting Going On.

VoteBaby
VoteVille


While it's old hat now for Bigger E., today littler e. is voting for the very first time.

Interestingly, it appears that they both figured out what vote splitting is without any help from me.

These days it's pretty much the same thing with their song and dance acts also.

Which is exactly as it should be.

As for the old days, well....





Have fun kibbitzing with your friends, neighbours and fellow citizens as you head from the sunlight into the voting booth everybody!


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Monday, May 08, 2017

Where The New Support For The BC Liberals Is NOT Coming From.

SomeInconvenientTruths
AreGreenerThanOthersVille


From that latest, much discussed (and disputed), Mainstreet/Postmedia poll:




Note which line has not going down as the BC Liberal line has drifted upward the last couple of weeks?

Now note which line has actually been going down during that same period.

Point is, push-assisted or not, any increase in support for the Cronification of Everything party has very likely come from a drop in undecideds rather from Greens.

All the more reason why I stand behind my hypothesis from yesterday that all that soft progressive support leaning Green could, if it swings back to its senses, win it for the Dippers

OK?


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And why would low info undecideds swing BCL in the final days?....Short and long of it?...Institutional endorsements I reckon.


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Sunday, May 07, 2017

#BCElxn17....These Numbers Don't Lie.

ASplitThatCouldDriveEvenTheMostProgressiveGreen
BananasVille


Look.

I know that many, if not most, BC Green Party candidates are very well intentioned.

Heckfire, some of them, like Shawnigan Lake's Sonia Fursteneau and that old punk rock war horse from Burnaby named Joe, would likely make great MLA's.

And I can see how Mr. Weaver's (mostly) socially democratic platform sits well with a whole lot of progressive voters who are, at least right now, saying they will vote Green.

But here's the thing....

Every seat taken from the Dippers on the Island moves the BC Liberal Party one seat closer to victory.

And even just one or two Green splits up the middle on the Lower Mainland ensure that there will be no voter and/or pay-to-play reform before the next election in 2021.

Why do say this?

Because it cannot be denied that, despite all the post-event backtracking, that Mr. Weaver himself made it very clear in his interview with Keith Baldrey last week that he will not work with Mr. Horgan if no one wins a majority. Furthermore, Mr. Weaver also made it clear (and has a past track record of support of the BC Liberals) that he gets along with, and can talk to, the "Iron Cronebird", Ms. Clark, particularly when it comes to the 'economy'.

So....

The time has come is time to look hard at the data and pull out the numbers that actually matter.

Which are the second party preference numbers of decided voters...

I'm going to refer to the most recent Mainstreet poll here, but you can look at a whole bunch of polls from all the companies over the last few weeks (they are listed, by date and company, by Eric Grenier, here) and you will see that the following summary is not a flash in the pan.

First: Of those currently saying they will vote BC Liberal, less than a quarter of them say that their second choice is either NDP or Green. The remainder, more than half, say they are undecided on a second choice.

Second: And this is something that has NOT been discussed seriously by the landed Lotuslandian proMedia pundit gentry this election cycle, fully half of those who say the are voting NDP also say that the Greens are their second choice.

Third: And this is the big one that cannot be denied by anyone, Mr. Weaver included, two thirds of those saying they will vote Green say that the Dippers are their second choice (see Mainstreet graphic, above). What's more, only 21% of Green voters indicate that the Cronification of Everything party is their second choice.


What does this all mean Alfie?

Well, here is my analysis....

A small point that matters: Unlike 2013, at this late date there is no way for BC Liberal vote to grow significantly given the complete of a Cummingsified Con presence to pull from this time around. This was illustrated by last week's Forum poll that shaved a significant percentage off the Liberal vote when it included 'Conservative' as a choice (see bottom of post, here).

A bigger, more important point: It would be a disaster if even a small portion of the soft Dipper vote were to go Green.

The really, really big/most important point: A massive chunk of the Green vote is a progressive one that would never seriously consider voting BC Liberal but could go NDP (and probably came from the Dipper camp in the first place, particularly the part that is not millennial-driven).


Upshot?

I would posit that the last 36 hours would be best spent if Mr. Horgan et al. were to make it (even more) abundantly clear to progressive folks leaning Green everywhere what will happen if they stay that way.

Because that vote, particularly the aspect of it that hates the cronies and all that they are doing to our province and those British Columbians that need our help most, is the one they have to get back to win.

OK?


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And, given how important the numbers above are,  I for one, do not understand why every single reporter covering Mr. Weaver is not asking him what, specifically, he will do if his party gains the balance of power in a minority government on Tuesday.
Iron Cronebird?....Blame Preston Manning backed with a dash of Murray Edwards. 
Update: It goes without saying that, respectfully, I do not agree with David Beers' take on why Mr. Weaver is willing to sidle up to Ms. Clark...Why?...Because, again, the data say there is little to be gained from attempting 'woo' soft BC Liberal voters and, conversely everything for Mr. Weaver to lose by pissing off progressives who are leaning towards him...The latter, in my opinion, is Mr. Weaver's (potential) achilles heel. 
Update II (Monday lunchtime): New polls out today make it abundantly clear why soft Green leaners with a progressive streak must vote NDP if they want to prevent a Liberal majority with any certainty whatsoever.


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Friday, May 05, 2017

BC Election Going Down....Your Best Friday Night Read.

SomePunditsHave(ALot)MoreToSay
ThanOthersVille


Rather than bothering to read the Dean argue with himself, sans actual data, as he heads to the horse race betting window to buy a cheap quinella ticket fronted by a reduced Clarklandian majority, I suggest you instead go and read a pundit who actually has something to say about something that actually matters.

That would be Merv Adey:

...An ABC (Anybody But Clark) vote is not worth the cogitation required because this election is down to the energy of volunteers now and the “Get Out the Vote” machinery…. To my mind, the workers for all three campaign are sufficiently energized to put out their best effort.

So I’m asking the undecided to think about it… When it comes to the ethical and legal failures I’ve spent the last two years blogging about, no informed voter can possibly accept the BCLiberal record. But the time for me to recount it all and complain of mainstream media laziness in some quarters (not all) ?? That’s over.

The fact the BCLiberals are close to being returned is evidence of a real right-wing and centre right natural leaning of the province.

But consider the NDP…On day one of a Horgan mandate, you get the end of donor dollars unduly influencing government policy to the detriment of 98% of us… You get the end of the Wild West not only of political donations, but also defunding of public education and the Wild West of environmental pillage with shockingly reduced returns to the public treasury..

As soon as big money, corporate AND union donation end, we get a start to a government in which need, and the greatest benefit to the public as a whole dictates public decision making. We get a start to having wide concerns about public accountability listened to and not dismissed.

There… that’s done. I’m not done. Whatever the result next week, I will blog as needed when something I feel is wrong with government. I will agree on policy more often if Horgan wins, so I may get a bit quiet in such as case… But I promise integrity and accountability will remain my top concerns….

Think. Vote. Get others to the polls if you can.



If this election campaign has shown us one thing it is that the words of principled amateur pundits are worth a gazillion times those of the local pros.

Go figure.


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And then, of course, there is Ron Obvious (who clearly did not receive an interview from Patrick Kinsella and Mark Jiles' number one horse) taking a huge bit out of Chichester Cathedral...In Kamloops!...Sheesh.

Please note: I am not talking about the non-stenographic local proMedia reporters here....Those folks have the most worth of all, particularly when they are unleashed by editors who have been shamed into doing so when outsiders (i.e. a guy named Levin) get the ball rolling...OK?


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Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Weaver Kinda/Sorta/Maybe/Doesn't Really But Just Might Back Clarklandia...Can The BC Liberal-Financed Ads Supporting Him Be Far Behind?

It'sLike2009And2013AllOver
AgainVille


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Update, 9:00pm Wed May3rd....Global now retracts its original lede...But as 'Sub Boreal' notes in the comment thread the interview itself is still filled with comments from Mr. Weaver that he can't work with Mr. Horgan..Thus, post-header has been revised into 'equivocal' form...Ha!
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From the (original) lede of a Global TeeVee summary of the good Mr. Weaver's interview with the Keef:

If push comes to shove and BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver had to strike a deal with another party to form a minority government, the former climate scientist said he would choose the Liberals...


So...

No progressive can now pretend that a vote for one of Mr. Weaver's parachute candidates is NOT a vote for a continuation of the total triumph of the corporate cronies.

OK?


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As for that ad thing mentioned in the header to the post?....Well, you know....Sterk!
Re: The Update...Gosh....How could the Keef possibly let all this inaccuracy happen?...I mean, it's almost as if he and his went out and hired a bunch of idiot bloggers to write copy based on his interviews, or some such thing.


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This Desperate Day In Clarkland...The Low Information Candidate.

WhatMe
WorryVille


From Marcella Bernardo, now workin' it hard (and very well) for CKWX:

While campaigning in Kelowna, she (Christy Clark) was asked about an investigation which revealed more than $140-million worth of (provincial) tax dollars have been spent giving tax breaks to more than 80 foreign companies.

Here’s how Clark responded to the claim only 300 jobs have been created by Advantage BC.

“I am really impressed that you made it all the way through that article and were able to figure out what the guy was trying to say.”...


Gosh.

Is it possible that Ms. Clark, she a  former member of the local ProMedia, thinks that the inverted pyramid lede should lead every story that is critical of her government's policies straight into the deepest, darkest corner of King Tut's tomb?

In the particular case of the New York Times story under consideration by Dan Levin, I reckon the lede actually leads to this million watt candlepower blowtorch:

...Participating companies have created few jobs, according to government figures, while more than 140 million Canadian dollars ($106 million) have been doled out in (BC provincial) tax refunds since 2008, when the initiative was expanded...

The incentives operate under a cloak of secrecy that is unusual for similar efforts in Canada and the United States, critics say. The province (of BC) will not name the companies that get the breaks. The only information available about them is on the website of a nonprofit that promotes the program.

“This is essentially a temporary foreign-worker program for the rich, with secret government subsidies for multinational corporations,” said Dermod Travis, the executive director of IntegrityBC, a nonpartisan political watchdog group based in Victoria, the provincial capital. “The government is selling B.C. as a tax haven for the global elite to park investment here, but not have to contribute.”...



What's for our fine Premier not to understand?

Except, of course, that long division would tell her that $140 million could fund 2.7 million bus passes for the disabled.

Yes.

You read that number right.

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Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Globe Editorial Misses Boat Entirely On Outrage That Led To Online Success Of #IAmLinda.

SomeThingsAreMuchMoreObvious
ThanOthersVille


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Update, 8:00pm Tuesday May 2nd....We're very glad to see that, on this one at least, Mr. Mason of the Globe is suddenly making an effort to...keep up.
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Well, well, well...

Turns out the Globe and (NoLongerEmpire) Mail's editorialists are just as adept, if not more so, at missing the obvious as is a certain well known west coast-based columnist in their employ.

In this particular case they have concluded that the #IAmLinda outrage is nothing more than a case of nameless and faceless misplaced manufacturement:

Or some such thing:

Of all the interactions ever to occur between a voter and a campaigning politician, the one last week between BC Liberal Party Leader Christy Clark and a woman in a North Vancouver market has got to be among the most anodyne.

Except, of course, that this one was caught on camera and went viral on Twitter, where it is being used against Ms. Clark.

We’re not buying it. Anyone who wants to can see the incident online and judge for themselves...


{snippety doo-dah}

...The voter in question, Linda Higgins, is an innocent party in all of this. There’s no evidence she was looking to make news, or that she was an NDP plant. She deserves no condemnation.

But neither did Ms. Clark do anything wrong. In fact, in the hurly-burly of a closely fought election campaign, she handled it well...


{snippety doodle-dandy}

...If there is a larger sense among some B.C. voters that the Liberal Party has grown arrogant after so many years in power, that’s fair. But the fact that a garden-variety exchange between a voter and a politician has become a distracting political incident on Twitter speaks more about a social medium that feeds on easy outrage than it does about the real issues in this election.




But here's the thing the fine folks at the Globe missed...

The real outrage about all of this started when, in a desperate attempt at deflector spike spin, Clarklandian campaign wizards claimed, all evidence to the contrary, that the citizen in question was an NDP plant.

And that is the real story - the fact that people like Mark Marissen and Laura Miller will say anything about anybody when they decide that the channel must be changed to take the heat off of their horse in the race.

Or, put another way...

Twitter the platform doesn't knowingly make stuff up about people to smear them.

Instead, people who use Twitter do.

People like the two BC Liberal party operatives named above.

OK?


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Some Hard Truths And A Little Hope In Yesterday's Ipsos Numbers.

TeaLeaves
GoingDownVille

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See update at bottom of post for a comment on today's brand spanking new Forum numbers...Upshot: The whiplash from the daily poll changes may be a phantom one
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At this point in an election trends matter and the numbers from yesterday's Ipsos poll have things going the wrong way, with the BCL up a few and the Dippers down a few. That puts the general, both for Ipsos and Justason, in a statistical tie.

The Clarklandians' greatest strength, apparently, is still the 'Economy' which means that the stenography on the part of the local proMedia (stenography like this from Mr. Bailey of the Globe) is working and the real truth is not getting out.

So.

What does it all mean?

Well, as you might expect, it means that Mr. Horgan et al. need every single seat if they are going to have a chance.

Especially in ridings where things are historically close and, regionally, on the island (which is absolutely required given the fact that, apparently, the hurtland still wants to vote against its own best interests).

Which further means that if everything goes right for the NDP and they get their Mr. Beer 'N Hockey-assisted ground game running at peak efficiency the Greens can still lose it for them.

And don't give me that 'folks who vote Green also vote Liberal' codswallop'?

Why?

Because it's all there, writ large, in Ipsos' drill down numbers:

-Among BC Liberals voters, their second choice remains equally between the NDP (28%) and Greens (26%).


-Among NDP voters, their second choice still strongly favours the Greens (53%) over the BC Liberals (15%).


-Among Green voters, the NDP (45%) remains much more likely than BC Liberals (14%) to be their second choice.



Not to put too fine a point on it, but, the real message of the last week has to be 'Progressives don't let their friends vote Green' unless, of course, they secretly want the cronification of everything to continue until, finally, there is nothing left of our fair province.


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Where's the hope?....Well, Horgan is winning on overall positives straight-up vs. Clark...The Dipper age demos are solid in the middle and they do not have to rely on a big youth vote to win...Finally, unlike last time out, there is nowhere, really, for the Clarklandians to grow given that there is no blueCon rump lingering like there was last time courtesy the destruction of the good Mr. Cummings...
Of course, all of the above could be pure bull hockey because we, the public, are not getting any riding-specific numbers whatsoever.
Update: Today's Forum poll has the Dippers up by eight over the Clarklandians...But, before you get too excited please realize that Forum has a 'Conservative' column that is getting 7% which is codswallop given that there only 10 Cons running...Thus when low info folks of that ilk get in the booth and can find no Con who do you think they will choose?....Thus, taking that 7% and giving it to the BCL brings things pretty much right to where Ipsos has them.


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